Obama has the 'big mo'

Momentum, that is.

It all started with an interview with the New York Times where Obama discussed taking on Clinton more forcefully and raised the stakes in the last debate in Philadelphia. As Chris Bowers points out,

For the first three weeks of October, the press ran with the "Clinton is inevitable" narrative. However, at some point, they grew bored with that story, and picked up the "Clinton is going to get attacked" and "when will Clinton stumble" narratives. Obama's claim that he was going to attack Clinton more forcefully was, as Media Matters showed, all the rage in the three days leading up to the debate. Both the attacks and Clinton stumbles were expected. In short, Clinton is now down a bit because the press told everyone for several days that, because of the attacks, poor debate performance and by "playing the gender card," she should be down. And so, they can move on from the boring, played-out inevitability narrative.

After reviewing some new polls out of New Hampshire, Bowers concludes,

Clinton is down, and her supporters seem to have moved to other candidates at roughly the same proportions as those candidates stand in the polls. Three factors are probably at play here. First, it seems that Clinton was dropping a bit even before the debate. Second, while the debate was not watched by many people, it was watched by some, and the combined attacks on Clinton during the debate probably made an impact. Third, after the debate, the news coverage was fairly harshly anti-Clinton, and that certainly made an impact as well. How much each of these factors made a difference is anyone's guess, but I remain a little spooked by how easily the established media was able to move Clinton's, or really anyone's, numbers downward when they wanted to. Her advantage in New Hampshire seems to have been trimmed by 7-9 points, and most of that change probably happened in only one week from only October 31st to November 6th.

Meanwhile, back in Iowa, where the democratic presidential primary will be decided and where there is still a three-way tie between Clinton, Edwards and Obama, democracts gathered for the big Jefferson Jackson Dinner. According to David Ypsen at the Des Moines Register,

The six leading Democratic presidential candidates showed up for the Iowa Democratic Party's big Jefferson Jackson Dinner on Saturday night, and five of them gave very good speeches.

Barack Obama's was excellent. It was one of the best of his campaign.

The passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided caucusgoers his way.

His oratory was moving, and he successfully contrasted himself with the others — especially Clinton — without being snide or nasty about it.

After reading such a glowing review, I couldn't resist the temptation to watch the speech for myself. After a quick search, I found that the Obama campaign had posted the whole speech.


An incredible speech it was! The coverage of it has rightfully been postive. Around the blogosphere:

• TalkingPointsMemo - The 'big mo' from the J-J dinner?

If last night's speech was any indication, Obama is now trying to strike a balance, threading an ideological needle. He used '04 themes ("I don't want to pit blue America against red America, I want to lead the United States of America"), while slamming Bush-style politics ("The era of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence, and Karl Rove politics will finally be over"), and subtly criticizing the Democratic frontrunner ("Not answering questions because we're afraid our answers won't be popular just won't do it").

Apparently, it was a rhetorical challenge that worked pretty well, though one can't help but wonder what the race would look like now if Obama had hit some of these same notes sooner.

• Mike Luxe at Openleft.com - Time for Obama to Make a Move

Coming at a time of relative weakness by Hillary, and with a strong J-J performance, Obama is now well-positioned to make a major move forward and take the lead in Iowa. If he does that over the next couple of weeks, he might gain real momentum, as all the anti-Hillary folks who have been split between a lot of different candidates might start gravitating in his direction. If he grabs the lead, a lot of people who have been disappointed by his somewhat listless campaign in recent months might be re-interested and re-energized.

• At mydd.com - Obama's Remarkable J-J speech

This section was particularly pointed.

The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do. Not answering questions because we're afraid people won't like the answer just won't do....Tri-angulating or poll driven positions because we're worried about what Mitt or Rudy will say about us just won't do.

Here, he's tapping into Clinton's real weakness, which was on display at the recent debate and is the reason for the viral success of Edwards's Politics of Parsing web video: Clinton's double speak. But he doesn't stop there. Later in the speech, he calls Clinton out on some of her more hawkish votes, arguing that it's her way of tacking to the right for the general election.

I am running for president because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking that the only way to look tough on national security by talking and acting and voting like George Bush Republicans. When I am this party's nominee, my opponent will not be able to say I voted for the war in Iraq or gave Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran or that I support Bush/Cheney policies of not talking to people we don't like.

Not only is he aligning Clinton with Bush and Cheney much more effectively than he did over the summer, but he's portraying Clinton as sort of a partisan traitor in a way, someone who'd sell out the values of the Democratic Party to act more "Republican" in order to win. Obama is saying we can win by being Democrats...acting like a Democrat is a winning strategy. That's very appealing and, while risky, I think was the best way to go after the beloved first lady who is widely perceived to have been a Democratic champion against the right-wing machine.

Things are getting interesting!

~BT