My Obama Prediction Explained

Given the push back I have received from my last post on the state of the primary race, I thought I would further elaborate my thinking behind predicting an Obama victory this early.

After further thought, I realize that it was way premature to be making any predictions but I guess I'm getting antsy with this primary that just keeps dragging on. Don't get me wrong, I am loving all the excitement, the incredible turnout on the Democratic side, and the two wonderful and extremely capable candidates. I just want this thing to be decided and hope that whoever wins makes the other his/her running mate. It seems I'm a "bi-candidate" like Margaret Cho. In a recent article at The Huffington Post, Cho said:

I am bi-candidate. I like Hillary and Obama. I like Obama and Hillary. I think it is wonderful that we have not just one, but two great candidates to choose from. It is an embarrassment of riches really. Not just one amazing politician. But two! We have the incredibly exciting Barack Obama, who represents hope and change and who can get a whole generation of disillusioned voters excited about politics again, which I think I is a miracle in itself. Then we have the amazing Hillary Clinton, who has already proved herself to be a great leader, who can and will clean up after the Bush administration just like she did the last time she was president.

So, we have two great candidates, I like them both, but why do I think that Obama is going to win?

1. Obama will win Wisconsin decisively.

• As Dan, who is from Wisconsin has noted, his state has historically been quite progressive and according to a number of reports, Obama has an advantage in terms of organization and key endorsements.
  
• Last night, Obama delivered a speech to a soldout 18,000+ crowd in Madison, WI. These crowds continue to be amazing and they are not only coming to hear Obama speak but also turning out to vote.
• The latest poll, from Feb 8-10, already has Obama ahead and doesn't include any momentum from the decisive wins in D.C., Maryland and Virginia.
  
• Update: New Rasmussen poll shows Obama up 47 to 43.
  
• Clinton also has been campaigning in Texas and seems to be not contesting Wisconsin with the full force of her campaign.
• Wisconsin is an open primary so independent voters should also help Obama.
  

2. The Clinton campaign is in the midst of internal turmoil at its highest ranks with the top two campaign staff leaving as well as two key staffers from the internet division. Also, Clinton is raising half as much money as Obama and he will be able to outspend her in the weeks leading up to March 4th.

3. After three full weeks of positive media coverage for Obama and clear momentum against Clinton, I think it is likely that she lose one of Ohio or Texas.

• Looking at the exit polling from Virginia and Maryland we see that for the first time Obama beat or broke even with Clinton in certain key demographics. Obama tied Clinton among Latino voters and white women. Further, Obama beat Clinton among voters over the age of 60 and among voters who earned less than $50,000. Both groups had previously been solidly behind Clinton.
• The process for apportioning delegates in Texas benefits Obama, especially since he will gain more delegates from his margins of victory in urban areas. Even if Hillary wins the statewide vote, the delegate count will likely be a draw.
  

If the above takes place, I believe Clinton's support among super delegates collapses and that she won't stay in until Pennsylvania votes on April 22.

~BT

State of the Primary Race

After 8 straight wins for Obama, the media is talking about Obama's momentum and his newly acquired lead in all the various delegate counts. The Clinton campaign now finds itself in a precarious position as it tries to regain its footing to be competitive in Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas.

Given all the talk about super delegates, Michigan and Florida being stripped of delegates and all the spin coming from both sides, people are rightfully asking where do things stand now?

First, the super delegates: Super delegates are elected Democrats from across the country who are able to vote for who they want at the convention. I think all the talk of super delegates deciding the race is overblown, given that super delegates will end up voting for the presumptive nominee as they have done in the past. According to Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton currently has an 86 delegate lead over Obama. As I am writing this post, I noticed that Chris Bowers just announced the creation of the Super Delegate Transparency Project, which should help to clarify things.

Second, Michigan and Florida: For those of you not keeping track, both Michigan and Florida held primaries before they were allowed to under the DNC rules. As a result, both states were stripped of their delegates and both candidates didn't campaign.

So, what's next for the campaigns?

Wisconsin votes on February 19th and the latest poll has Obama leading Clinton 45 to 41. This will be followed by two debates that have been announced so far, one on CNN and one with NBC.

Then on March 4th, we have Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont going to the polls. Ohio and Texas have large numbers of delegates at stake and Clinton must win by large margins in both. Even James Carville, a big Hillary supporter, has admitted as much saying, "She's behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."

It seems to be that it is highly unlikely for Clinton to come back and win the primary at this point. For Clinton to make up the difference in the delegate count, she would have to win Ohio and Texas by 20 points and that's considering she can squeak out a tie in Wisconsin.

Unfortunately, it looks like the race will be over by the time Pennsylvania votes on April 22nd. I think that Clinton will drop out after March 4th after she realizes that she no longer has a viable path to the nomination. I had been really excited that we would have almost a month of campaigning and attention given to Pennsylvania voters, but by the look of it, the race will be over after March 4th and Obama will win. That is my prediction.

Any thoughts? Disagreements?

~BT

Update: I have further explained my Obama prediction.