After 8 straight wins for Obama, the media is talking about Obama's momentum and his newly acquired lead in all the various delegate counts. The Clinton campaign now finds itself in a precarious position as it tries to regain its footing to be competitive in Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas.
Given all the talk about super delegates, Michigan and Florida being stripped of delegates and all the spin coming from both sides, people are rightfully asking where do things stand now?
First, the super delegates: Super delegates are elected Democrats from across the country who are able to vote for who they want at the convention. I think all the talk of super delegates deciding the race is overblown, given that super delegates will end up voting for the presumptive nominee as they have done in the past. According to Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton currently has an 86 delegate lead over Obama. As I am writing this post, I noticed that Chris Bowers just announced the creation of the Super Delegate Transparency Project, which should help to clarify things.
Second, Michigan and Florida: For those of you not keeping track, both Michigan and Florida held primaries before they were allowed to under the DNC rules. As a result, both states were stripped of their delegates and both candidates didn't campaign.
So, what's next for the campaigns?
Wisconsin votes on February 19th and the latest poll has Obama leading Clinton 45 to 41. This will be followed by two debates that have been announced so far, one on CNN and one with NBC.
Then on March 4th, we have Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont going to the polls. Ohio and Texas have large numbers of delegates at stake and Clinton must win by large margins in both. Even James Carville, a big Hillary supporter, has admitted as much saying, "She's behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."
It seems to be that it is highly unlikely for Clinton to come back and win the primary at this point. For Clinton to make up the difference in the delegate count, she would have to win Ohio and Texas by 20 points and that's considering she can squeak out a tie in Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, it looks like the race will be over by the time Pennsylvania votes on April 22nd. I think that Clinton will drop out after March 4th after she realizes that she no longer has a viable path to the nomination. I had been really excited that we would have almost a month of campaigning and attention given to Pennsylvania voters, but by the look of it, the race will be over after March 4th and Obama will win. That is my prediction.
Any thoughts? Disagreements?
~BT
Update: I have further explained my Obama prediction.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
State of the Primary Race
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
I disagree...i think it will go until the DNC convention. If my math is correct, Obama would have to win by wide margins as well in order to get the minimum number of delegates to secure the nomination
All predictions at this point are just guesswork. But having said that, I would venture that I partly agree and partly disagree.
If Clinton loses either Texas or Ohio, or both, then I think Carville is right that her goose is cooked. At the moment, polls show her running ahead in both states, but all that could change over the next several weeks ... and, anyway, we've learned that polls aren't very reliable this year. If she not only loses one or both of those states, but loses decisively, then I suspect that the superdelegates will begin stampeding in Obama's direction, and Clinton will have to drop out before the convention ... and maybe even before the Pennsylvania primary.
However, if Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, even if she doesn't win them crushingly, then I suspect she will stay in the race at least through the Pennsylvania primary..
Putting together all the imponderables, my guess is that the Obama/Clinton struggle will still be going on in April, so we will have a contested primary here in Pennsylvania. But that's just a guess
Post a Comment