Rudy's Obituary Already?

Over at The Appletonian, a fellow Penn blogger and long-time supporter of Rudy Giuliani recently wrote,

I'm not terribly optimistic. In all likelihood, Rudy Giuliani's presidential bid will come to a halt next Tuesday when he fails to win the Florida presidential primary.

Primarily, Rudy, for the past year has drawn almost all of the Democrats' collective fire. He was maligned in their presidential debates and castigated by the media for mentioning 9/11 too often. Instead of spreading their fire across the GOP field, Rudy was the brunt of jokes and attacks, keeping the rest of the GOP candidates relatively unscathed except for some relatively minor intra-party skirmishes.

Given the polls in Florida leading into today's Republican primary, it looks like Giuliani is finished although he might not drop out right away. Right now, it is a battle between McCain and Romney which looks like it will come down to the wire. If McCain can pull it off, he pretty much has the nomination locked up given his sizable national lead in the polls and the media love affair with his "maverick" status. Let me remind you that McCain is the one that says we will be in Iraq for the next 100 years and doesn't understand the economy.

A Romney win in Florida will prolong the race and keep things very interesting. So I guess that is what I'm rooting for.

~BT

Keep going after young voters!!

I have been following and linking to Mike Connery's ongoing coverage of the progress being made in youth mobilization and voter turnout as well as the efforts by the various campaigns to attract young voters.

Like we saw in Iowa, young voters turned out en masse in South Carolina, as Mike reports,

Turnout in the Democratic Primary in South Carolina almost tripled yesterday. According to CIRCLE, 74,245 young voters went to the polls, 19 percent of eligible young voters. In 2004, only 26,181 voters aged 18 to 29 participated. As a share of the electorate, young voters made up 14 percent of the electorate, an increase of 5 percent over the previous cycle.

Also of interest were two videos by the Obama and Clinton campaigns targeted at youth. Check them out.




I liked both videos and hope that the campaigns continue to target youth and build excitement around the 2008 election.

~BT

Focus The Nation at Penn - January 31

On January 31st, Campus Progress at Penn, Fox Leadership and the Penn Environmental Group are co-sponsoring a day-long conference as part of the national Focus the Nation teach-in on global warming solutions for America.

The conference at Penn features a number of Penn's distinguished faculty and alumni. The conference will take place in the Ben Franklin Room of Houston Hall from 10am-4pm. The schedule is as follows:

10-11: Professor Robert Giegengack: Realities of Climate Change
11-12: Professor Bill Braham: City Change to Address Global Warming
12-1: Dean Gary Hack: Net Zero and Carbon Foot Prints
1-2: Catered lunch provided by FarmEcology
2-3: Professor Ali Malkawi: Buildings: Innovations in Conservation
3-4: Christopher McQuale (SEAS '86):Environmental Activism: Case Study in Planning Your Education and Career

In conjunction with the conference, there will be an art gallery exhibition "Sustainability by Design" on February 1st from 5:30 PM – 7:00 PM in the Ben Franklin Room.

Hope to see you there!

~BT

Edwards and Clinton speak on the heals of Obama

Edwards delivered a gracious concession speech that reassured his supporters that he is staying in the race. He focused on how his campaign is giving a voice to the disenfranchised and that he will continue to be that voice.

Hillary addressed South Carolina in little more than a sentence. It is clear they are trying to minimize this loss and refocus everyone's attention on Super Tuesday. She is delivering her regular stump speech and isn't being broadcast live. Chelsea continues to accompany Hillary and hope that means that Clinton will continue to target young voters.

~BT

Obama's Barnburner South Carolina Victory Speech

I am blown away. An incredible speech. Here are some quick hits and I hope to offer more commentary after I can rewatch it and read the transcript.

First, the setting. There is a very diverse crowd and a substantial number of young people, although it is mostly white faces behind the podium. Here are some of the quotes, which are in chronological order:

"We have the most votes, the most delegates and the most diverse coalition we've seen in a long long time."

He referred to the "Young people across the country who haven't had a reason to participate until now" which received a huge roar from the crowd.

"tired of business as usual"

"hungry for change"

"Fundamentally change the status quo in Washington"

"This election is the about the past versus the future"

Edwards and Clinton concede shortly after Obama spoke.

~BT

Clinton Speech in Missouri

Bill Clinton is currently speaking in Independence, Missouri. I'm not sure if we will see Hillary.

The first thing that jumps out at me is all the young people, mostly young women, who are standing behind the podium. The Clintons are continuing to court the youth vote.

Bill Clinton's message:

• "He [Obama] won fair and square and we congratulate him for that but we now move on to February 5th where millions of voters get to vote."
• Talked about the success of the Clinton Global Initiative, although not sure why. Shouldn't the focus be on the candidate
  
• Reclaim the future for our young people
• Most Americans are already in a recession

Sounds like he is going back to campaigning against Bush, which I really like and hope continues.

Both CNN and MSNBC have cut away from the speech, so that's all I have for now. I will try and post the link to this speech once it goes up on Youtube.

Hillary will be speaking at 9:30pm EST in Nashville. From Chris Bowers,

While Obama and Edwards are in SC tonight with supporters, Clinton is travelling to Tennessee tonight, to give the perception that she is focusing on February 5th instead of South Carolina.

~BT

And the Winner Is...

Only 1 minute after the polls closed, MSNBC, NBC, CBS have called it for Obama. CNN hasn't yet.

What matters will be the actual breakdown of votes, especially for second place. But results after 1 minute? Seriously?

CNN has now called it for Obama and is now going through every demographic group broken down by gender and race to see who they voted for. There wasn't a gender gap among black voters who went to Obama. Among white voters, men went for Edwards and women for Clinton. As far as I can tell, Obama did reasonably well among white voters.

The infamous exit polls results.

African-Americans

Obama 81%
Clinton 17%
Edwards 1%

African-American Women

Obama 82%
Clinton 17%
Edwards 0%

Whites

Edwards 39%
Clinton 36%
Obama 24%

Just in, Obama will give his victory speak at 9pm and I'm sure it will be carried live on cable news.

And for those that are wondering, I would be commenting on Fox News coverage, but students living on-campus have not had access to Fox News for over a month. As much as I don't like Fox News or "Faux News" as I like to call them, it is ridiculous that Penn Video Network has not fixed the problem.

8:30pm Update via Dailykos,

With 55% of the vote in, Obama now has garnered more votes than John McCain did in the Republican primary. Additionally, Clinton has received more votes than Thompson (3rd place), and Edwards has received more votes than Ron Paul and GOP "front-runner" Giuliani.

~BT

Liveblogging South Carolina Democratic Primary #2

Polls are about to close and I just watched a great interview that Keith Olbermann had with South Carolina Representative James Clyburn, the House Majority Clyburn commented on the injection of racial politics into the race and the backlash from voters that is being seen in the exit polls. It seems that South Carolina voters, regardless of race, were displeased with the negative campaigning and bickering between the camps.

Christy Hardin Smith over at Firedoglake.com had this great post about the influence of the economic disparities on the racial divide that the media has been focusing on.

Shaila Dewan (whose reporting I generally love) had a glimpse of economic disparities along the racial divide in South Carolina today that is worth discussing at length. She focuses on a town called Orangeburg -- Mr. ReddHedd and I always joke that all roads in SC lead to Orangeburg because, truly, they all seem to do just that when we are driving down that way. And this struck me in her piece:

“My cousin works at McDonald’s,” she said. “She said some people like working there because they get benefits. That’s what they go for now.”

Because Orangeburg is a blue county in a red state, it has been visited by all the Democratic candidates, some more than once. Health care, gasoline prices and trade imbalances are all pocketbook issues here....

Gilda Cobb-Hunter, a state legislator who represents part of Orangeburg County, said some of the unemployment among blacks stemmed from poor education by the state’s money-starved rural schools. The school system was recently portrayed in a documentary about education along Interstate 95 called “Corridor of Shame,” a phrase Mr. Obama used in the debate in Myrtle Beach on Monday.

“The issue is education and the effect of a lack of a quality education on the level playing field,” Ms. Cobb-Hunter said.

I'm hearing so much economic uncertainty and fears across the economic divide -- and from readers everywhere across the country. Much more than concerns about any other issue at the moment, and I'm wondering if this election cycle is going to sustain an "it's the economy again, stupid" line of electoral questions all the way through -- or whether this is a temporary outgrowth of market/housing volatility. Somehow, I think the questions are going to keep on coming for quite a while. Anyone else sensing that "kitchen table" pocketbook politics is going to be key this year?

Any doubts that the media is enjoying stoking the race versus gender questions? Read on. Jeffrey Feldman has a thought-provoking piece on indentity politics worth your time today, which makes an excellent riposte.

And the winner is...

~BT

Liveblogging South Carolina Democratic Primary

Let the fun begin. I am watching MSNBC and checking CNN on television and Brave New Films & Young Turks' coverage online.

At 6:02, we should now have exit polls. The results? coming soon...

Matt Stoller, who is on the ground in South Carolina, offers his closing thoughts:

The frame I want to offer is rooted in talking to voters. The primary questions on their mind seems to be who can win the White House, and who can fix what Bush did to the country. It is not which Democratic surrogate said what about which person, and race and gender in the negative sense are annoying everyone, unless it's framed as a positive, in which case all sides are proud that a black man and a woman are running. There is worry about a black man winning the Presidency, and Clinton being polarizing, but it's rooted in electability. These are Democratic partisans.

With Obama up around 12% in polls leading into today, the more exciting question is how well did Edwards do? Can he get past Clinton and take second? Edwards has outspent both Clinton and Obama and we can't ignore the appeal of his economic message.

First exit polls to hit the wire:

6:15	AP exit polls: 75% say country is ready to elect a black President, and the same percentage said the same about a woman.

6:15	AP exit polls: Roughly 80% of Dem voters would be satisfied if Clinton or Obama won the nomination

more to come...

~BT

Introducing Vocab

To engaged and active members of the Penn community, he needs no introduction. I had the pleasure of working with Hayling Price on the Undergraduate Assembly last year. Hayling authored the UA's Worker's Rights Proposal and helped found the Student Labor Action Project (SLAP) at Penn.

During his time abroad last semester he started blogging at Vocab 101, where he has shared hist thoughts and especially his own music.

Hayling recently posted his '08 mix which he called:

A blend of a bunch of under-the-radar tracks I had in heavy rotation last year.

Well, I can't stop listening to these great new hip hop tracks and thought I would share.

You can download his 08 mix and check out all of his other music (he has released 4 CDs already) at his site Vocab Music. If you are in the Philly area, check out the details for some of his upcoming shows.

~BT

DP: Protesters disrupt Wharton conference

Following my first "Beat the Press" post Wednesday about the Daily Pennsylvanian's coverage of the Wharton Private Equity Conference, the DP published this news brief:

Last Friday, members of the Service Employees International Union and their supporters gathered to protest a speech by David Rubenstein, co-founder of the private equity firm, the Carlyle Group.

Rubenstein was a keynote speaker at Wharton's 14th annual private equity and venture capital conference. The approximately 50 protestors disrupted his speech for approximately half an hour, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

According to Dennis Short, research coordinator for SEIU Healthcare Pennsylvania, the group turned out to oppose the short staffing and lack of supplies in Manor Care, a nursing care provider that the Carlyle Group acquired three weeks ago.

Short added that the union began protesting conditions with Manor Care's former owner and they insisted that Carlyle Group address the ongoing problems as part of the acquisition. He alleges that Manor Care has still not done so.

I am really happy that the DP was able to set the record straight on what happened at the conference and that they were able to include information from the SEIU. The news brief also quotes Jordan Elpern-Waxman, the Communication Director of the Conference:

Jordan Elpern-Waxman insists that the company cannot be held responsible for these conditions such a short time after the business deal.

Really? Who then should be held accountable? And do we really think that Carlyle is going to improve conditions by increasing staffing and supplies? Somehow I don't remember that to be their modus operandi. Will Carlyle let their employees unionize if they want to?

From the SEIU press release,

According to the New York Times investigation, “At 60 percent of homes bought by large private equity groups from 2000 to 2006, managers have cut the number of clinical registered nurses, sometimes far below levels required by law. During that period, staffing at many of the nation’s other homes has fallen much less or grown.” In the last year alone, 6,000 layoffs have been announced as a result of buyouts involving the Carlyle Group.

Ya, that sounds more like it. I guess we will have to wait and see if Rubenstein's commitment to avoid layoffs will hold true.

~BT

Morning Tunes: Booty Luv

Billy recently introduced me to the British dance music group Booty Luv. Boogie 2Nite was their first single and you can check them out on myspace (link).



~BT

Beat The Press: Wharton Private Equity Conference

Beat The Press will be a continuing series that takes a critical look at media coverage on Penn's campus

The Daily Pennsylvanian published an article on Tuesday January 22nd about the recent student-run Wharton Private Equity Conference. It mentioned how the topic of private equity is quite exciting for Wharton students and how great the attendance was. It even mentioned that David Rubenstein, the co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was the keynote speaker.

What the article failed to mentioned was the 50+ demonstrators who showed up at the conference to protest David Rubenstein and Carlyle's recent acquisition of ManorCare, the largest chain of nursing homes in the United States. From the New York Times, which included this important tidbit of information in their reporting of the conference,

David Rubenstein was supposed to deliver the keynote speech Friday morning at the Wharton Private Equity Conference, an annual event that draws buyout professionals and academics to discuss the state of the industry. Instead, Mr. Rubenstein, managing director of the Carlyle Group, was “hooted off the stage,” as The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Joseph N. DiStefano described it, by protesters from the Service Employees International Union.

From Dealbreaker, self-described as a "Wall Street Tabloid" has these tidbits including photos,

The event has been taken over by protesters. For real. The police are coming. They are protesting the speaker from Carlyle Group - Its amazing really - The room is out of control...becoming violent. Wharton staff not prepared for the demonstration. Literally just watching them take over the room .... Rubinstein is speechless and standing there alone on the stage facing it ..... Carlyle bought manor care a few weeks ago and layoffs are coming. Its like - France. Pushing, shoving, punching - everywhere. No sign of Bowie still. Rubenstein just told a protester on a bullhorn to "take a remedial course in English before you go any further."

The DP has some serious explaining to do. Update from DP

~BT

Romney: Who Let the Dogs Out?

Yesterday, Mitt Romney was paying tribute to Martin Luther King Jr. in a parade in Jacksonville, Florida. The interesting part is what Fox News is reporting he said:

He jumped off the Mitt Mobile to greet a waiting crowd, took a picture with some kids and young adults and awkwardly quipped, ”Who let the dogs out? Who who.”

He took pictures with many in the crowd and greeted one baby wearing a necklace saying, “Hey buddy! How’s it going? What’s happening? You got some bling bling here!”

But you really need to see the video for the complete effect.

Is this going to be Romney's Macaca moment?

~BT

Liveblogging CNN SC Democratic Debate

Wow, I am watching the CNN Democratic debate co-sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. Wolf Blitzer began by saying they would focus on the issues.

Refreshingly, there hasn't been any questions about process and things have stayed on policy differences. 20 minutes into the debate and we have had questions on trade agreements and the economy. We got some very clear distinctions between Obama, Clinton and Edwards on their respective stimulus packages. I really like the green collar jobs ideas which they all seemed to agree upon. Edwards was at least able to get some airtime about his broad plan to address poverty.

Obama is clarifying his Reagan comments and got a real shot at Clinton for being on Walmart's board of directors.

good quote from Edward: "There is a third candidate in this debate!"

Clinton: "We are just getting warmed up"

Obama: "I can't tell who I am running against sometimes" referring to what is now being called "Billary" after the prominent role Bill Clinton has played so far in the campaign.

Edwards responds beautifully to the first major back and forth between Obama and Clinton. It is remarkable that he had to forcefully remind everyone that he was still there. Very much applicable to his recent media blackout and you could see that he was frustrated.

wow...let the fireworks continue.

more to come...

~BT

Update: 8:50pm The debate is getting vicious. Matt Stoller has more.

Martin Luther King Symposium at Penn

Happy Martin Luther King Day!

Here in the United States (for my international readers), we have the day off from school, the markets are closed and here at Penn, we have the kickoff of Penn's Symposium for Social Change which continues until February 1st. There are so many great events and you can find all the details at the MLK 2008 website.

Here are a couple I will be attending:

Miles To Go: Discrimination Against LGBT People at The University of PennsylvaniaToday
Tue, Jan 22 2008
7:30 pm - 9:00 pm
The LGBT Center, 3907 Spruce Street
ACCESS: General Public

Making Social Change: The Direct Action Campaign: A talk by the founder of Training for Change, George Lakey
Thu, Jan 24 2008
4:30 pm - 6:00 pm
Logan Hall, The Terrace Room, 249 South 36th St.
ACCESS: General Public

I mentioned that the markets are closed in the US, but that isn't the case in the rest of the world. Overnight, Japanese markets were down 5%, following by plummeting European markets and the Toronto Stock Exchange down almost 600 points. With American markets expected to follow suit tomorrow, Affabillyty is asking where were you the day the stock market crashed?

~BT

The Day After NH, Taking Stock

It is the day after the primary and since I'm on the email list of both Obama and Edwards, I got their post-New Hampshire emails. First let's look at their subject lines:

Obama: We knew this would be hard
Edwards: Two down 48 to go

Obama is stressing how everyone was saying he had no chance and that things are only just beginning. Edwards for his part is reassuring his supporters that he isn't going anywhere.

Their messages:

Obama:

There is something happening in America.

A week ago we were 14 points behind, and no one imagined that we'd accomplish what we did in New Hampshire last night.

There is something happening when Americans who have never participated in politics turn out in numbers we've never seen before.

There is something happening when people vote not just for the party they belong to but the hopes they hold in common.

Change is what's happening in America.

Edwards:

Two races down. Forty-eight states left to go. Today, 1% of Americans have voted -- 99% have not.

And those 99% deserve to have their voices heard, because I have met too many Americans whose voices have not been heard in this democracy.

That's what this battle is all about -- and it's why I'm asking you to continue standing with me as we take this fight all the way to the Democratic convention and then on to the White House.

We stand at a crossroads in American history -- and we know what needs to be done. The only question is whether we have the backbone, the will, and the determination to go there. I want to be clear: I intend to be the nominee of our party.

Here is Clinton's victory speech which I liked. Her opening line, "I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice" was great. The background of her speech no longer had Madelaine Albright, Bill Clinton, etc...

Unfortunately, under 2,000 people have watched it on Youtube. Whereas, by this time the day after Iowa 100,000+ people had watched Obama's speech. She doesn't seem to have the same online excitement, which is too bad because it is a great anti-Bush speech. Notice that it is much more partisan than Obama's speeches and tone thus far in the campaign. I think that his post-partisan rhetoric has hurt him among hardcore partisan democrats.

More to come...

~BT

We have a battle!

The polls were wrong and all the talk from pundits about the demise of the Clinton campaign have turned out to be false.

With Clinton's win in New Hampshire, we can expect a tough fight in South Carolina and Nevada. Obama will be getting the endorsement of a major Nevada union tomorrow which should give him a boost. Clinton is already being called the "comeback-kid" which is a bit of a stretch given that she was down for less than 3-4 days. But, her campaign managed the expectations game and obviously delivered today. Kudos to Hillary for all she has done and her tireless public service.

I have been thoroughly impressed with the Democratic field and I have yet to endorse any of the candidates. Although I have given Obama the majority of my coverage on this blog, I actually have a slight preference for Edwards in terms of policy. I would be happy with Edwards, Clinton or Obama and am enjoying this historic battle for the nomination.

I hope to continue to have coverage of the primaries and would love to hear your thoughts about the race.

As more specific details of the exit polling are released, we will have a better idea of the vote breakdown. At this time, it looks like Clinton succeeded in turning out older women and that her youth blitz blunted the Obama "wave" that we saw in Iowa. I guess having Chelsey next to her helped. Obama won among men and independents, like he did in Iowa. In the forthcoming closed primary states, independents won't be able to vote for Obama so we will see how that affects things.

I didn't think it was possible, but things got even more exciting tonight.

~BT

Online Coverage of Tonight's Primary Results

Brave New Films will be hosting live video coverage of tonight's New Hampshire primary .

WHEN: TONIGHT AT 7PM ET
HOSTS: Cenk Uygur and Wes Clark, Jr.
WHERE: http://bravenewfilms.org/election

SCHEDULE:
7:10: Robert Greenwald, Brave New Films
7:40: Matthew Yglesias, The Atlantic
7:50: Robin Abcarian, L.A. Times
8:00: Billy Wimsatt, League of Young Voters
8:10: Rachel Sklar, The Huffington Post
8:20: Jane Hamsher, Firedoglake
8:30: Jim Dean, Democracy For America
8:40: Steve Clemons, The Note
9:00: Lane Hudson, News for the Left
9:10: Isaiah Poole, TomPaine.com
9:40: James Rucker, Color of Change
10:00: Liza Sabater, Culture Kitchen
10:10: Eric Boehlert, Media Matters

...and more still being added...

I missed the Iowa live coverage, but read that it was great. I am going to miss the live coverage tonight, but will catch up on all of the results when I get home. I also just got a call from Spencer Scharff, C'06, who was in Iowa helping out the Obama campaign and got to witness things first hand. He confirmed much of what I have been reading/seeing both online and on television.

A few more Facebook status updates since my last post:

• Dorna Mohaghegh loves this quote from an ABC news article about turnout in the NH primaries: "towns are starting to get concerned that they don't have enough ballots." Hell yea.
• Alexis Ruby Howe is has her fingers crossed for Hillary in NH!
• Steven Parks likes Obama, but likes Hillary a lot more…since when did being a candidate with experience, substance, and an actual plan for our country become a bad thing?!

~BT

Update: Jason Lee, a Wharton junior, who I had the pleasure to work with on the Undergraduate Assembly last year, also emailed me to let me know he was in NH working for Obama. He said it was "crazy".

Around the Blogosphere - New Hampshire Edition

• Matt Stoller gives his prediction for the Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Obama will win the New Hampshire primary by a substantial margin tomorrow, followed by Clinton and then Edwards. I know that sounds crazy, considering that Obama is so anti-establishment that he has raised only $100 million, garnered the support of a good number of ex-Clinton administration officials, and is treated exceptionally well by the press. But he could just pull it off.

• Jerome Armstrong blogs about the state of the race.

• Markos thinks the Obama wave is more like a "tsunami":

This thing is becoming a tsunami, and that's before Obama even wins New Hampshire and South Carolina. I don't see how Clinton recovers.

~BT

Facebook Excitement Continues

After the Iowa caucuses I compiled all the related status updates from my Facebook network. Things are heating up again. Take a look.

January 8^th:

• Alexandra Kotsovos is obviously watching the NH primary on CNN.
• Brandon Celestin thinks Clinton needs to emphasize strong leadership instead of change.
• Daniel Richard Patton is saying that today will witness the penning of the Clinton campaign's obituary.... it's time to pack up and head back to chappaqua.

January 7th:

• Vivek Patel is über confident in Hillary!!
• Rob Medina is thinking about the presidential election....hmmm...hillary or obama??
• Tamia Booker finally in her new place and loves it!!! Special thanks to Adj, Marcus, and Chris for going in for the long haul... love you!!! Oh and Tamia says, "GO OBAMA!!!"
• Oscar A. Benitez finished Obama's book and HIGHLY recommends anyone on the fence to read it. OBAMA IS THE MAN!

The Obama Wave that I recently blogged about is in full force on Facebook. We await to see if holds true at the ballot box.

~BT

Penn Blogs on the New Hampshire Primary

The blogosphere and American media are abuzz about today's primary in New Hampshire. Coverage begins at 6pm on MSNBC and 8pm on CNN.

Penn blogs have been no different in the discussion of today's important primary. Stu Stein over at The Un-Wharton explains what has been behind his recent coverage,

I rarely become very interested in politics, but I'll be honest, I really like Obama. I think the reason that I like him so much is because he is the opposite in every respect from Bush.

Stu recently discussed why he liked Obama and provided some highlights of the great 20min interview that Obama had with Brian Williams on NBC Nightly News last night. Stu had previously discussed Where Hillary's Brand Buckled in Iowa.

The Appletonian, written by a Penn senior from Wisconsin, is a steadfast Rudy "9/11" Giuliani supporter and yesterday came out with his prediction:

We won't know the New Hampshire results for at least another 24 hours, but here's my prediction of what will go down.

Democrats:
Barack Obama: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 32%
John Edwards: 20%
Bill Richardson: 3%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%

Republicans:
John McCain: 35%
Mitt Romney: 32%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Rudy Giuliani: 11%
Ron Paul: 8%
Fred Thompson: 2%

That seems to be a pretty good prediction given the slew of polls we have been seeing since Iowa. It will be interesting to see if Ron Paul beats Giuliani like he did in Iowa. That would be a big defeat for Rudy and hurt his chances in Florida.

rzklkng, over at Akkam's Razor, discussed how turnout and share of the vote are the real story of the primary:

NH registrations are as follows:

Ind: 44%
Rep: 30%
Dem: 26%

The current polling indicates Independents breaking 2:1 for Democrats, which would give us:

Rep: 45%
Dem: 55%

I suspect NH plays a role in identifying how Independents will vote nationally, just like Iowa informs about rural voters. It will also serve to determine which messages (hope, change, experience, status quo, fear, etc.) resonate with those voters.

Over at Albertgate, Albert Sun who is a a rising sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania discusses the incredible youth voter turnout that we are seeing:

I thought I had had it figured out. Young people didn't vote because they were disgusted with the political process, and when prompted with all bad choices, chose to tune out. But if a candidate can come up with a message promising change, and can do it with the charisma to command attention, kids might tune back in. Is Obama that candidate?

More to come...

~BT

The Growing Obama Wave

My first blog post on Obama was back in early November. Following the Democratic debate in Philadelphia, I wrote about the positive post-debate coverage for Obama. The bump in the polls he received combined with the glowing reviews he got after the Jefferson Jackson dinner, gave him some real momentum going into Iowa.

I had also pointed to Mike Luxe's post at Openleft.com:

Time for Obama to Make a Move:

Coming at a time of relative weakness by Hillary, and with a strong J-J performance, Obama is now well-positioned to make a major move forward and take the lead in Iowa. If he does that over the next couple of weeks, he might gain real momentum

That is exactly what has happened. Obama decisively won Iowa and on the eve of the New Hamphire primary, Obama looks like he will beat Clinton in a blowout tomorrow. Over at mydd.com, Jerome Armstrong can't see how Obama can lose by pointing to the most recent polls out of New Hampshire:

Obama up by 13 percent in the Gallup poll of NH:

            Now   Dec
Obama       41    32
Clinton     28    32
Edwards     19    18
Richardson:  6     8

And up by 10 percent in the latest (and most trusted) CNN/WMUR poll (pdf), and look at the trend:

            1/5-6     1/4-5     12/27-30     12/13-17    12/6-10

Obama          39       33        30         26          30
Clinton        29       33        34         38          31
Edwards        16       20        17         14          16
Richardson      7        4         5          8           7
Kucinich        2        2         2          2           3

As I wrote on Friday, Obama's win in Iowa saw a major increase in youth voter turnout and incredible excitement among the caucus-goers. The huge amount of media attention given to the subsequent polling and the constant coverage of the horse-race is only helping Obama. It will now come down to voter turnout and I expect a repeat of the Obama wave in Iowa.

According to Chris Bowers, Obama won Iowa because of Liberals and Progressives who turned out en masse:

I can't stand the zombie narrative about Obama winning on a wave of post-partisan and post-ideological voters. The data shows the opposite to clearly be the case, with 75% of Obama's Iowa support in coming from self-identified Democrats. Further, not only did Obama also clean up among self-identified liberals, but younger voters are an overwhelmingly liberal group in Iowa

In addition, we are seeing an Obama surge in South Carolina,

Two new post-Iowa polls show Obama getting a huge double digit bounce in South Carolina. Results of Rasmussen Reports (553 LVs, Jan. 6, MOE +/- 4%) and Survey USA (579 LVs, 1/4-6, +/- 4.2%) are as follows:

	Rasmussen (12/16)	Survey USA (12/17-18)
Obama	42 (33)	50 (39)
Clinton	30 (33)	30 (41)
Edwards	14 (17)	16 (17)

You'll recall that polling after the Oprah Winfrey SC event indicated that African-American voters were moving from Clinton to Obama; now, post Iowa, Obama is making huge gains among both black AND white South Carolina voters.

Exciting times in American politics as the world watches New Hampshire. More to come.

~BT

Obama Wins Iowa with Huge Youth Turnout

It is simply amazing. Obama's victory speech tonight was quite good and I'm looking forward to the next few days of politicking for New Hampshire.



I will be writing more extensively tomorrow, but wanted to provide a couple of links to some great blog posts:

• Chris Bowers: A New Generation Takes Charge Of The Democratic Party
• Kos: The triumph of our Democratic field
• Mike Connery: Youth Vote in Iowa Triples: Young Voters Prove the Naysayers Wrong
• Mike Connery: The League and MoveOn Team Up for a Digital Primary
• Josh Marshall: Where We Are
  

Here is a sampling of recent status updates from my Facebook network:

• Chi-Chi Achebe is marveling at the Audacity of Hope...and its ability to silence nay-sayers.
• Daniel Richard Patton is OBAMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
• Ross Tyler Avila is so proud of everyone who came together to caucus for Obama and give him a resounding victory.
• Hayling Price thanks Iowa for making history.
• Ramya Raghavan is thinking that a young voter revolution is a brewin.'
• Don Engel is impressed that Obama's victory speech mentioned energy research and the world outside the U.S. and Iraq. He wishes other candidates had done the same.
• Abraham Kneisley is SO happy Hillary came in third in Iowa.
• Alan Dang hearts huckabee.
• Ezra Billinkoff is hoping Clinton pulls her shit together. Now it's serious.
• Brandon Celestin is happy for Obama...but still rooting for Hillary.
  

People are definitely excited and things are looking great for 2008.

~BT